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Acccording to the BBC, Malawi’s new President, Joyce Banda — who took power after her predecessor died of a heart attack — has announced her desire to overturn a ban on homosexual acts. I had been wondering whether Obama’s statement might have an impact on African governments, and obviously it’s hard to infer whether or not there’s a connection (there is no mention in the article). She may also be acting out of concern for aid conditionality.

But the timing does make me wonder.

She will undoubtedly face pushback from conservative members of society, but Malawi stands to be the first African country since the onset of the post-apartheid era in South Africa (1994) to act with greater tolerance and concern for human rights for gays.

Today, I commented on a very nice paper on the politics of Chinese tobacco control by Jiyoung Jin at the Oxford-Princeton Global Leadership Fellows conference. It was the fourth annual meeting of a very successful program, which provides a fantastic opportunity for doctorates from developing countries to conduct research and gain feedback from one another and from faculty and students at both Oxford and Princeton (they spend a year at each). More information about the program — which is co-directed by Bob Keohane and Ngaire Woods — and about how to apply can be found here.

During the workshop, I also ran into Nic Cheeseman, who is a University Lecturer in African Studies at Oxford, and writes a great blog called Democracy in Africa.

Yesterday morning, I had started to write about the hypocrisy of North Carolina adopting an anti-gay marriage law, while the U.S. was developing a policy to deny foreign aid to countries that discriminate against gays.  I had been primed by watching Jon Stewart the night before, as he appropriately mocked the President’s press secretary for trying to finesse the implications of VP Joe Biden’s public expression of support for gay marriage. When reporters asked the press secretary to clarify Obama’s views on the issue, he tried and failed to convincingly articulate the contradictory claims that the President’s view “hadn’t changed,” and yet was “evolving.”

But then yesterday afternoon, Obama came out (excuse the pun) and made clear his support for the idea of gay marriage.

“At a certain point, I’ve just concluded that for me personally it is important for me to go ahead and affirm that I think same-sex couples should be able to get married.”

This is a big moment for the United States. The president’s words are not law, but they do imply policy and at least policy goals. Those words could come to haunt him in the election, but I am guessing not. Mitt Romney responded not so much by forcefully condemning the idea of gay marriage — he pointed out that this was his view, but it was a difficult issue — but by emphasizing his consistency over Obama’s lack thereof. It’s hard not to sense that the country has reached a watershed on sexual orientation.

Nonetheless, those foreign governments, especially in Africa, which find themselves under pressure to adopt a more tolerant and inclusive approach to citizens irrespective of sexual orientation may still balk at the varied realization of such ideals within the U.S. As shown below, American states vary widely, with distinctly regional approaches, reminiscent of other civil rights issues from years’ past. Of course, one implication might be that the federal government could withhold funding to the Southeast, especially to states such as Mississippi, which afford no protections for anti-gay discrimination… but that’s not too likely! At the very least, the Obama administration can take the moral high ground now that POTUS has finally spoken without equivocation.

(Graphic from the Guardian UK.)

Gay rights in the U.S. by region

Duncan Green recently posted about a promising and straightforward approach to developing effective interventions in Tanzania, which he likens to a venture capital model. Oxfam and other donors sponsored a set of projects designed to build accountability largely through various awareness campaigns, and within a relatively short time, relevant donors and stakeholders convened themselves to review the projects. Of particular note, they killed off the ones that seemed to not be working.

Seems logical, I know. But surprisingly rare in the development world where the incentives and timetables are often set up to recognize failure only after millions of dollars and hours have been invested.

I certainly would not advocate that development projects should be subject to the types of quarterly performance expectations which often drive publicly traded companies towards pathological investment patterns. Many projects, by design, take a long time to implement and observable change may not be immediate. A bad quarter doesn’t mean that a project is a failure. But, rapid assessment and feedback, including learning from problems, mistake assumptions, etc., seems to be an obviously good strategy. The challenge is to mobilize relevant evaluators to invest the time and energy to reflect quickly and for project implementers to be willing and able to digest the feedback.

Green highlights some of the key lessons learned from failures:

What didn’t work and why?

Geography: The active musicians were not able to work well in Ngorongoro, because the communities were too widely dispersed to reach.

Government obstruction: The community radio never got off the ground because the government did not issue a licence.

Informal v formal power: The farmer animators’ work was unsuccessful in spreading awareness beyond the groups that the animators belonged to. This might have been due to their lack of a ‘formal’ position in community leadership.

Attitudes to youth: Students were able to make demands within their schools, but were unable to take this approach into the community– there was simply not enough respect for young people’s viewpoints.

I’d be curious to hear more about how well the initially successful projects (i.e., those that didn’t get axed) were able to incorporate the new information from the failures and whether this led to better outcomes overall.

The international budget project has updated their website, and has posted a series of papers on the causes and consequences of budget transparency. One paper by Michael Ross finds that

… among autocracies, greater oil wealth is correlated with less fiscal transparency, while greater non-fuel mineral wealth is paradoxically associated with greater transparency…There is some evidence that among autocracies, oil reduces transparency because it helps dictators stay in power.

The IBP is shedding light on how budget processes work, measuring the extent to which citizens actively participate in this key governance function, and is also actively promoting more participation by, among other things, supporting NGO partners involved in this type of work.

I know I have neglected this blog for the past couple of weeks… traveling to a conference, teaching, grading, etc. have all kept me more than busy and unable to string together more than a few coherent sentences. Frankly, I don’t know how the truly active bloggers do it! But as part of this recent pattern of neglect, I discovered that I forgot to hit “publish” for this posting two weeks ago. Ordinarily, I might just let it lie — but if you missed the NYT editorial by Andrea Campbell, I am glad to be calling your attention to her story…

Whether it’s in Africa or the United States, one of the biggest questions for any society concerns how to address the risks of an individual falling terribly ill or being severely injured in an accident. At the most fundamental level, a decent society ought to do what it can to make sure that someone who is dealt a particularly unlucky set of circumstances will be afforded the resources to recover in some reasonable way. This is particularly true in societies that clear possess the resources to provide such social protections.

In yesterday’s New York Times, MIT professor Andrea Campbell, who was a colleague of mine at Yale a decade ago, when we were both Robert Wood Johnson Health Policy scholars, penned a touching and devastating op-ed about her sister-in-law, recently paralyzed and made a quadriplegic from a traffic accident. Campbell explains that her sister purchased short-term medical coverage for her unborn baby, which will expire soon (the baby was born safely through c-section.) And when that policy does expire, the horrors of our health/social policy system will become evident:

…my sister-in-law will be covered by Medi-Cal, California’s version of Medicaid, because she is disabled and has limited income. But because my brother works, they are subject to cost-sharing: they pay the first $1,100 of her health costs each month. Paying $1,100 leaves them with a monthly income of just 133 percent of the federal poverty level. If my brother makes more money, their share of the cost increases.

They must also meet the Medi-Cal asset test: beyond their house and one vehicle, they can hold $3,150 in total assets, a limit last adjusted in 1989. They cannot save for retirement (retirement plans are not exempt from the asset test in California, as they are in some states). They cannot save for college (California is not among the states that have exempted 529 college savings plans from their asset tests). They cannot establish an emergency fund. Family members like me cannot give them financial help, at least not officially. If either of them receives an inheritance, it will go to Medi-Cal. Medi-Cal services that my sister-in-law uses after age 55 will be added to a tab that she will rack up over the rest of her life. When she and my brother die, the state will put a lien on their estate; their child may inherit nothing. Even my brother’s hobby runs afoul of the asset test: he enjoys working on old cars, which he can no longer keep.

I spend most of my time on this blog writing about what goes wrong and right in Africa. Given the wealth and capacity of the United States — the state and our society — this is one sorry state of affairs.

As Campbell concludes, writing in the context of the current court battles over “Obamacare,” such personal tragedies are exactly why we need better social policy.

As reported in the Times of Swaziland, armed soldiers roamed through Mbabane today, with the clear intent of repressing any attempts to demonstrate against the regime.

In a statement issued by Prime Minister Sibusiso Barnabas Dlamini in the afternoon, “national security agents have been instructed to protect life and property against any protest action planned anywhere as it has been declared illegal by Cabinet.”

“The public should be aware that no person, persons or organisation has made an application to march or picket in terms of the law,” the PM said.

According to Swazi Media commentary, several protest leaders have been arrested. And in a report from the M&G,

A “no tolerance” warning was issued against the protests, imposing a ban on walking in groups of three people or more.

I still have yet to see any reports of the Swazi crisis in any American media outlet.

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